"The 2026 Democrat insurgency is a new tea party on steroids. Fewer Dems approve of Democrat members of Congress (47%) than the GOP did of GOP members at this point in 2010 (52%). More Democrat House members are going down in primaries (5 so far and likely rising) than all of 2010 for the GOP (2)."
"You have to go back 16 years, remember it was that Republican Tea Party wave of 2010. I would argue the Democratic version of it is a new Tea Party, but it's on steroids. Why do I say that? Well, let's just start off with the fact, approve of their own party in Congress. Republicans in July of 2010, it was 52%, a very low percentage, but at least it was north of 50%. Look at where we are now with Democrats in terms of them approving their own members of Congress. It's actually below 50%. Democrats dislike their party more than Republicans did during the Tea Party wave of 2010. Just 47% of Democrats now approve of their own party in Congress. As I said, it's a new Tea Party, but it's a Tea Party on steroids. And we're seeing the impact it's having on some Democratic incumbents. Absolutely the case. You know, if you look at the number of Democratic incumbents, House incumbents who have gone down to defeat, it's actually higher in the House than it was back in 2010. The number of Democratic incumbents who lost primaries for Republicans back in 2010, it was one, two. You can count it on one hand. But in 2026 so far, it's already five. It's already five. You have to use up all the digits on your one hand. It's five so far. Even if you include Lisa Murkowski going down to defeat in a 2010 Senate primary, of course, she then went on to win as a writing candidate in the fall. And you include the Senate, that only gets you to three. Still, we're dealing with more defeats right now in Congress for Democrats, those Democratic incumbents than you even saw during the Tea Party way for Republicans back in 2010. And the prediction markets think it might get even worse. It could get even worse. In fact, it's likely to get even worse. So if you look at the Cauchy prediction market and the chance that six House Democrats go down to defeat, lose their primary in 2026, this number has consistently over the last week or so been hovering 80, 90 percent. And when we talk about history books, the history books, right, if in fact six House Democrats went down to defeat in 2026, it would be by far it would be the largest number, be the largest number in a post redistricting cycle for Democrats. And get this over 50 years. That's why I got this picture of the Tea Party on your screen right now, because, you know what, it's 250, but also it's a new Tea Party for Democrats. I was just in Boston. I saw where this all took place. All right. And we're talking about some of the specific races where incumbents might be in trouble. Yeah. I mean, there are a number of races where they might be in trouble. How about Missouri won, right? There's a possibility. How about a Michigan 13? That's a real possibility in terms of a House Democrat going down to defeat. And then in Connecticut won as well. Another real possibility. And this is just what we've been seeing over and over and over again. We have been seeing that these incumbents have been going down to defeat. And it looks like there are going to be plenty more, at least if you listen to the Cauchy prediction markets where people put their money where their mouths are. It could be an historic summer. A lot of news this morning. We'll be right back."
💬 Discussion
"The 2026 Democrat insurgency is a new tea party on steroids. Fewer Dems approve of Democrat members of Congress (47%) than the GOP did of GOP members at this point in 2010 (52%). More Democrat House members are going down in primaries (5 so far and likely rising) than all of 2010 for the GOP (2)."