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ID: 4707
Ed Zitron
@edzitron.com
Jul 4, 02:02 AM
One of the biggest lies of the AI bubble is that Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are "growing because of AI." In reality, they're using the continued growth of their other business units to cover the meager returns from AI, and the massive waste of their trillion+ in capex.
🎤 Whisper Transcript (en)
⏱ 32s
"Microsoft, Google, and Meta, and Amazon, are all doing a funny little, I don't want to call it a scam, but it's a trick where, because their other businesses are still growing, but they never disclose their AI revenues, everyone conflates that with AI driving their growth. In reality, their other businesses are growing, and AI is losing the money across the board. You'll notice that neither Microsoft or Amazon, who both share their run rate of AI, will share the actual AI revenues. That tells you that these companies are afraid. Public companies love good news. If they had good news, why wouldn't they share it? That's because they've only got bad news here."
💬 Discussion
Ed Zitron
@edzitron.com
· Jul 3, 04:39 PM
One of the biggest lies of the AI bubble is that Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are "growing because of AI." In reality, they're using the continued growth of their other business units to cover the meager returns from AI, and the massive waste of their trillion+ in capex.
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">zetetic99.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@zetetic99.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 06:16 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Microsoft ain't growing shit. Github has a Zero Nines SLA right now.
mrshu.github.io/github-statu...</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Freddie Grendel</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@fucketsofrain.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 05:32 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">isaiprofitable.com</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">striple.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@striple.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 06:23 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">The galling thing is that when the bubble bursts they will doubtless be deemed &quot;to big to fail&quot; and bailed out on the taxpayers dime like the banks who gave us 2008.</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">spoonyplanes.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@spoonyplanes.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 5, 12:24 AM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Hey another person with no idea what the bailouts were</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Moon Hippo</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@moonhippo.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 07:09 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Unlike the banks we don’t really need these bastards, so it’ll be unjustified…</p>
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&lt;span class=&quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&quot;&gt;Timlagor&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&quot;&gt;@timlagor.bsky.social&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&quot;&gt;· Jul 4, 12:05 AM&lt;/span&gt;
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&lt;p class=&quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&quot;&gt;We didn&amp;#39;t need the bankers either: we needed the infrastructure and there was justification for helping the innocent bank depositors but the bankers should have been jailed not paid (like Iceland did).
Sadly &amp;amp;quot;justified&amp;amp;quot; is not the metric that applies.&lt;/p&gt;
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Linotype Pilgrim</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@symbo1ics.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 07:18 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Our governments are all predicating service cuts on it already.
They aren&#39;t acting as if it is going to go away. They&#39;re going to keep pulling out stops to keep the con going. All be driven by tech fascists, Thiels &amp;amp; Andreessens, who have coup&#39;d our countries.
www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news...</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Toronto Will</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@torontowill.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 07:16 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Banks are critical to the economy because they lend money used for commerce. AI companies do the opposite: they take and burn money. Like, A LOT of money. There’s no such thing as a cash furnace that’s “too big to fail”. They’re too big to succeed.</p>
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&lt;span class=&quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&quot;&gt;striple.bsky.social&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&quot;&gt;@striple.bsky.social&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&quot;&gt;· Jul 3, 08:46 PM&lt;/span&gt;
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&lt;p class=&quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&quot;&gt;Too big to fail/vital to the National interest/backbone of industry choose whatever label you want but it&amp;#39;s a safe bet that the big corporates won&amp;#39;t be the ones paying the price.&lt;/p&gt;
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&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&amp;quot;&amp;gt;Ed Zitron&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&amp;quot;&amp;gt;@edzitron.com&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&amp;quot;&amp;gt;· Jul 3, 08:49 PM&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
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&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&amp;quot;&amp;gt;[ignoring everything being said] I,&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;
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&lt;span class=&quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&quot;&gt;Ed Zitron&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&quot;&gt;@edzitron.com&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&quot;&gt;· Jul 3, 07:16 PM&lt;/span&gt;
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&lt;p class=&quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&quot;&gt;Ya and the commercial paper industry broke during the GFC so they basically lost one of the main forms of money lending&lt;/p&gt;
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">NoIQ</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@noiq15.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 07:12 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">&amp;quot;National Security&amp;quot;</p>
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&lt;span class=&quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&quot;&gt;Ingo&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&quot;&gt;@lasombra-br.bsky.social&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&quot;&gt;· Jul 4, 11:06 AM&lt;/span&gt;
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&lt;p class=&quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&quot;&gt;This&lt;/p&gt;
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">The Sage Grouse</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@maybeimaleo.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 07:31 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">They&#39;re trying to do this IN ADVANCE by having the government own part of the company.</p>
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&lt;span class=&quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&quot;&gt;striple.bsky.social&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&quot;&gt;@striple.bsky.social&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&quot;&gt;· Jul 3, 08:37 PM&lt;/span&gt;
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&lt;p class=&quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&quot;&gt;That and as a payment to Trump&amp;#39;s protection racket. &amp;amp;quot;Nice company you have there be a shame if something happened to it&amp;amp;quot;.&lt;/p&gt;
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&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&amp;quot;&amp;gt;Ed Zitron&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&amp;quot;&amp;gt;@edzitron.com&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&amp;quot;&amp;gt;· Jul 3, 08:50 PM&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
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&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&amp;quot;&amp;gt;At least have a cogent way of explaining what it is you’re scared of!&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">somf</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@somfin.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 08:00 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">The thing that makes AI a bubble is not something that can mathematically be &amp;quot;bailed out.&amp;quot;</p>
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&lt;span class=&quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&quot;&gt;striple.bsky.social&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&quot;&gt;@striple.bsky.social&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&quot;&gt;· Jul 3, 08:34 PM&lt;/span&gt;
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&lt;p class=&quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&quot;&gt;The companies who&amp;#39;ve invested hundreds of billions can definitely be bailed out.&lt;/p&gt;
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&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&amp;quot;&amp;gt;somf&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&amp;quot;&amp;gt;@somfin.bsky.social&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&amp;quot;&amp;gt;· Jul 3, 08:43 PM&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
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&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&amp;quot;&amp;gt;You can&amp;amp;#39;t &amp;amp;amp;quot;bail out&amp;amp;amp;quot; a circular financing arrangement, more money won&amp;amp;#39;t stop the bleed
You can&amp;amp;#39;t &amp;amp;amp;quot;bail out&amp;amp;amp;quot; the hyperscalers, their debt is due to ongoing costs
You might be able to &amp;amp;amp;quot;bail out&amp;amp;amp;quot; the banks and VC firms&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;
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&amp;amp;lt;span class=&amp;amp;quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&amp;amp;quot;&amp;amp;gt;Timlagor&amp;amp;lt;/span&amp;amp;gt;
&amp;amp;lt;span class=&amp;amp;quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&amp;amp;quot;&amp;amp;gt;@timlagor.bsky.social&amp;amp;lt;/span&amp;amp;gt;
&amp;amp;lt;span class=&amp;amp;quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&amp;amp;quot;&amp;amp;gt;· Jul 4, 12:08 AM&amp;amp;lt;/span&amp;amp;gt;
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&amp;amp;lt;p class=&amp;amp;quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&amp;amp;quot;&amp;amp;gt;They can bail out Trump&amp;amp;amp;#39;s favourites. It&amp;amp;amp;#39;s not like they care about trashing the USA Federal Finances.&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;
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&amp;amp;amp;lt;span class=&amp;amp;amp;quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&amp;amp;amp;quot;&amp;amp;amp;gt;@somfin.bsky.social&amp;amp;amp;lt;/span&amp;amp;amp;gt;
&amp;amp;amp;lt;span class=&amp;amp;amp;quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&amp;amp;amp;quot;&amp;amp;amp;gt;· Jul 4, 01:03 AM&amp;amp;amp;lt;/span&amp;amp;amp;gt;
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&amp;amp;amp;lt;p class=&amp;amp;amp;quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&amp;amp;amp;quot;&amp;amp;amp;gt;Who?&amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;gt;
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Arran</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@arrannz.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 05:05 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">I'm watching Metropolis (1927) and this reminded me of AI CEOs.</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">bikepop</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@bougeard.vonb.fr</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 05:15 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">The fact that no analyst is asking “show us the isolated AI revenue you fucking cowards” is the stock market equivalent of regulatory capture</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Carol</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@pinkgodzilla2.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 04:49 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Token use is a gambling addiction at it’s core. Just one more round and I’ll make it. Just one more round. The house is all about taking your money with the bonus of stealing any product ideas generated.</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Transient Sun</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@t0sun.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 04:41 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">the only good result of the AI BS era is these companies collapsing and giving up space for better companies and better innovation to replace them.
Meta specifically needs to die, they have nothing of value.</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Mike Carrington</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@mikecarrington.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 04:43 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Meta desperately needs to be broken up. Ditto Alphabet/Google</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Vlatko</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@vegantriathlete.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 4, 12:01 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Exactly.</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Engineeringdude</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@engtechnic.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 06:10 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">I so badly want all these companies to lose so much money that they have to split up to keep the core running, Google splitting off Android and Youtube to keep the search engine and ad services running, Amazon spinning off shipping to keep web services and the web store up and so on</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">My Name Is Aram</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@rawfishandbeer.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 06:13 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Microsoft splitting off Xbox...</p>
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&lt;span class=&quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&quot;&gt;Engineeringdude&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&quot;&gt;@engtechnic.bsky.social&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&quot;&gt;· Jul 3, 06:20 PM&lt;/span&gt;
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&lt;p class=&quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&quot;&gt;it really would be for the best with some kind of tight licensing agreement for OS support, Microslop would have fared better if they didn&amp;#39;t make porting Android Apps to Windows Mobile something that could only be done in house, that could have been the basis for Xbox&lt;/p&gt;
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&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&amp;quot;&amp;gt;My Name Is Aram&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&amp;quot;&amp;gt;@rawfishandbeer.bsky.social&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
&amp;lt;span class=&amp;quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&amp;quot;&amp;gt;· Jul 3, 06:24 PM&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;
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&amp;lt;p class=&amp;quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&amp;quot;&amp;gt;It&amp;amp;#39;s felt like gaming hasn&amp;amp;#39;t been a priority for the last few years anyway. $68 billion Activision Blizzard money sink notwithstanding.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Bronski Tweet</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@readyuser.one</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 04:43 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">They're also decreasing spend in areas that would have sustained them , such as in hardware and game development. Xbox is dead.</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">xcptrapncountry.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@xcptrapncountry.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 05:02 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Watching Microsoft mortgage every last profitable part of their business in service of copilot is infuriating given how many people are basically forced to use Microsoft products that are getting way worse to use</p>
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&lt;img src=&quot;https://cdn.bsky.app/img/avatar/plain/did:plc:b6scuaa4ds72ccpyedtt6tec/bafkreiewm4v7bm2yb2ypmd25as7tv7i7wempybiqhppins6via6hxwfaxm&quot; class=&quot;w-6 h-6 rounded-full shrink-0 border border-slate-800&quot; /&gt;
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&lt;span class=&quot;text-xs font-bold text-slate-300&quot;&gt;Bronski Tweet&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[10px] text-slate-500&quot;&gt;@readyuser.one&lt;/span&gt;
&lt;span class=&quot;text-[9px] text-slate-600&quot;&gt;· Jul 3, 05:23 PM&lt;/span&gt;
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&lt;p class=&quot;text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words&quot;&gt;I think Amazon and Google are the only company getting out of this in one piece. MSFT is going to lose about 80% of its value in 3y&lt;/p&gt;
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">vdv working environment representative</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@vdv-work-env-rep.eurosky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 08:01 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">You were super good!</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Firedingo</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@firedingo.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 05:39 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">@ketanjoshi.co in the end the companies who'll be left standing are the ones who can offset the irrepreable losses</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Karl Olson 🌻 Ultraklystron</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@karlrolson.com</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 04:48 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">The last thing they want to admit to is that if they dropped AI, they'd be boring, mature, traditional companies with tremendous dividends &amp;/or huge stock buy-backs. However, that's not &quot;line go up,&quot; or at least it's not line &quot;go hockey stick&quot; which is all the gambling addict VCs want.</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Leo Ang (🇸🇬)</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@gweber.pds.1095.me</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 5, 01:23 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">@karlrolson.com the &#39;huge stock buy-backs&#39; line says it all — these are mature FCF machines wearing a growth costume. Market eventually reprices the costume. Research content only, not financial advice.</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Zendervai</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@zendervai.bsky.social</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 04:51 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">Honestly, at the moment, the biggest counter to the idea that Microsoft is growing is how they've spent hundreds of billions on their video game division only to hack it apart in a really inefficient and stupid way that costs more money while ticking off everyone else in the industry.</p>
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-slate-300">Ed Zitron</span>
<span class="text-[10px] text-slate-500">@edzitron.com</span>
<span class="text-[9px] text-slate-600">· Jul 3, 06:12 PM</span>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-350 leading-relaxed break-words">microsoft has not spent hundreds of billions of dollars on its gaming division</p>
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