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LiveSquawk @livesquawknews.bsky.social
Jul 8, 06:10 AM

Eurozone inflation is now tracking the ECB's milder scenario. Headline was projected at 3.2% in June and printed at 2.8%. A September downward revision makes hiking harder to justify. Lane is still citing second-round effects and pushing to raise the neutral rate range.

๐ŸŽค Whisper Transcript (en) โฑ 66s

"And then we're kind of now in the ECB's milder scenario, right? So, you know, these scenarios that Walsh is trying to get away from, I guess, and now the ECB have introduced them, which is a classic. But we sort of more closely align probably with that, right? And I think in June, they said headline would be expected 3.2, we're at 2.8, but then call would be 2.4, and we're at 2.4, you know? So, I think then looking ahead, you know, do we get a downward revision in September to the inflation forecast? You know, that would probably make it a little bit tricky if they're hiking rates then, potentially, you know? Or do they just leave the door open and say, you know, hawkish bias and that's what we're doing? I know Lane, right, the chief economist, he's been in camp, really, just citing still second round inflation effects, of course, and then the top of the range of the neutral policy rate, I think, you know, he said should be raised to two and a half percent. So, yeah, yeah, I think still, you know, very much, you know, data dependent and sort of a little bit of time on their side as well."

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LiveSquawk @livesquawknews.bsky.social ยท Jul 6, 04:02 PM

Eurozone inflation is now tracking the ECB's milder scenario. Headline was projected at 3.2% in June and printed at 2.8%. A September downward revision makes hiking harder to justify. Lane is still citing second-round effects and pushing to raise the neutral rate range.