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LiveSquawk @livesquawknews.bsky.social
Jul 7, 09:40 PM

Lagarde defended June's hike as justified by ECB inflation projections, not precautionary. She also acknowledged falling oil prices and Middle East de-escalation have made risks more balanced. Bank research says that weakens the case for a July follow-up hike that had been well priced.

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"I mean, she actually did defend June's rate hike, she pushed back against the idea that last month's quarter point was an insurance hike and argued that it was fully justified by the ECB's inflation projections at the time, which was consistent with what she said at the time in Sintra. And it wasn't a precautionary, it was a necessity, according to a brilliant viewtake of what she said. She also acknowledged that falling oil prices and de-escalation in the Middle East have made both inflation and growth rates a bit more balanced versus a few weeks ago, which is a notable softening from the June meeting when inflation risks were clearly sort of skewed slightly higher. But all this in place and bank research suggests this weakens the case for a July follow-up hike, which was fairly well priced in."

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LiveSquawk @livesquawknews.bsky.social ยท Jul 6, 08:00 AM

Lagarde defended June's hike as justified by ECB inflation projections, not precautionary. She also acknowledged falling oil prices and Middle East de-escalation have made risks more balanced. Bank research says that weakens the case for a July follow-up hike that had been well priced.